India to outstrip all other economies in growth momentum: OECD
In what should come as a boost for the new Narendra Modi government, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says India is the “only major economy” that is projected to see a pick-up in growth momentum.
The Paris-based think-tank saw mixed trends for the developed world, according to its study released on Wednesday.
Most of the major economies, developed and developing, including the United States, Brazil, China and Russia, are expected to witness stable growth momentum. But the indicators point to weak growth in Europe.
The readings for the month of September are based on Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.
“India is the only major economy where the CLI points to a pick-up in growth momentum,” OECD said in a statement.
In September, CLI for India touched 99.1, the highest since May this year when it stood at 98.6. In August, it was at 99.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank projected 5.6-per cent growth rate for India this year, citing renewed confidence in the market due to a series of economic reforms pursued by the new government. India’s economic growth was below 5 per cent in the last two financial years.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecasts the Indian economy to grow at 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 and at 6.3 per cent in next financial year 2015-16. During the April-August period of 2014-15, industrial output growth as measured by Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was at 2.8 per cent, as against flat production in same period of the previous fiscal.
Earlier this week, minister of state for finance Jayant Sinha expressed confidence that the country’s GDP growth would cross 6 per cent in the next financial year (2015-16). OECD said that CLI points to growth losing traction in Japan even though such a trend may be related to one-off factors.
“Within the Euro area, the CLI continues to point to a loss of growth momentum, with stronger signals of a slowdown in the case of Germany and Italy.
”In France, however, the outlook continues to suggest stable growth momentum,” the OECD said.
